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Lessons learnt for 09 – hold 'em or fold 'em

07 January 2009

Know when to hold 'em and fold 'em in 2009

When people ask me a question about the sharemarket, usually it's to ask for a stock tip instead of asking how to make money on the market. I say that acting on someone else's tip without doing the research is the equivalent of gambling.

Now there is nothing wrong with gambling on the market. But gamblers who make money also understand how to manage their positions. They understand the odds and have strategies in place to manage risk and capital. And there are many gamblers out there on the market making profits. But one thing that gambling isn't, is investing. Gambling still requires study and discipline but it's more about the short-term than taking a stake in the long-term performance of a business.

So what kind of share trader are you? Are you a gambler? And what lessons have you learnt that you can apply in 2009?

When preparing to invest or trade in the market, I recognised that like any discipline, there are lessons to be learnt. I figured that to be a doctor would require around eight years of study, to be an engineer around four years and a scientist around three years. When I started, I decided that the study of the sharemarket should take at least two years, so I gave myself two years to learn everything that I could about the market. I kept a trading diary and recorded reasons for my trades and also exit strategies.

In actual fact, I now realise that the study of the sharemarket is a life-long quest just like any other discipline.

Starting out, my one big problem was my lack of experience and so I sought out other peoples' lessons to learn from their experience. I got my hands on every book that I could read to learn about the market. As Issac Newton famously said in a letter, "a dwarf standing on the shoulders of a giant may see farther than a giant himself." Without my own experience, I built my foundation on the experience of others and that of the market.

There are many things that I love about the market but one aspect that I love most is the illogical nature of the market. The market at times makes no sense at all — discounting quality companies to ridiculous levels and at times overpricing the most terrible stocks. That all leads to easy profits for the business-minded investor.

At the heart of investing is understanding what a business is worth, what its growth prospects are, recognising a bargain and understanding when the market is willing to overpay for your investment, allowing you to lock in an attractive sell price.

I hope that for you, 2009 is an enlightening year. One where profits come with the ability to recognise a stock's potential and limits. After all, you can give a man a fish and feed him for a day or teach him to fish and feed him for a lifetime. I hope investing ends up being the gift that gives you financial freedom for a lifetime and not merely profits or losses trade by trade. Like the Kenny Rogers song says, 'If you're gonna play the game, ya gotta learn to play it right'!

Happy investing and trading for 2009!

Julia Lee
Equities Analyst
Bell Direct

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