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Lessons from the lost decade of Japan's economy

25 June 2010

Easy money = asset bubble burst

In the 1980s, Japan had extremely low interest rates. When interest rates are low, the money taps turn on and money is pumped into the economy.

Where did the money flow? In the case of Japan, money flowed into property and shares.

The rise in both of these markets was unsustainable, mainly due to this 'easy' money. Once the money tap turned off when interest rates rose in 1989, those asset bubbles popped.

The bigger the bubble…

The problem with economic bubbles is that the longer they last, the larger the bubble grows and ultimately the bigger the fall out.

Bubbles happen when there is an artificial flow of money. The flow needs to be continuous in order for the bubble to survive. This artificial flow of easy money fueled investment but was not sustainable once the money tap turned off.

Right now, governments all over the world are pumping easy money into their economy. This is a recipe for disaster, particularly when those governments need to derive their cash flow from — you guessed it — their tax payers.

So it's the savers who suffer.

Japanese economy in the 90s

When Japan's asset bubbles popped, there were debt problems. Japan's banks were deemed too big to fail and they were bailed out. Sound familiar?

Unfortunately, the Japanese banks weren't viable businesses without those government bailouts. So more bailouts ensued.

The fragility in Japan's economy meant that it was less able to weather external economic shocks like the Asian currency crisis and the 'tech wreck'.

Japan's economy didn't start improving until the bailouts ceased and only four big banks were left standing.

The 90s were Japan's lost decade

Misalignment of capital meant that instead of money flowing into wealth-creating activities, it flowed into the asset bubbles. There hadn't been sufficient investment into areas of the economy which would create wealth. So when those bubbles popped, Japan was put on the back-foot for most of the 1990s.

What can Australia learn?

If anything, Japan's experience should show why money pumping by the government might not be a good strategy. It diverts attention away from real wealth creation in a country and instead we see a diversion of money to unsustainable areas.

Bill Gross, the founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co — a US-based investment company that runs the world's largest mutual fund) recently announced that they will be investing in equities, even though traditionally they have focussed on fixed income or bonds.

It makes sense. Since money is not being rewarded in many countries like US, Europe and Japan (which basically have a zero interest rate), money is probably put to better use by investing in businesses.

Even in Australia, with the cash rate at 4.5%, the yield on shares is 5.8%. Once you account for dividend franking, it approaches 7%.

The problem is that the volatility in the sharemarket means it's not a friendly environment for investors. But still, Australia is looking much better than US, Europe or Japan.

Emerging markets look like they are going to shoulder growth over the next decade as the developed world deals with economic problems.

Time for ETFs?

Maybe now is the time to look at a BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) exchange traded fund (ETF)? For example, you can trade the iShares ETF (code IBK) on the ASX. Learn more about ETFs.

As always, make sure the investment suits your financial needs before jumping in and be aware of how currency fluctuations may impact those investments.

Happy trading!

Julia Lee
Equities Analyst
Bell Direct
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