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Morning Bell 25 November

Sophia Mavridis
November 25, 2022

US financial markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, with trading set to resume on Friday in New York. However, markets will close early at 1pm local time.

European stocks rallied to levels last seen 3 months ago, with the STOXX 600 closing at its strongest level since August 18, led by gains in real estate stocks.

What to watch today:

  • The SPI futures are suggesting the Australian market will rise 0.18% at the open this morning.
  • In commodities:
    • The oil price has slightly rebounded, regaining only some of its earlier losses, after closing at a two-month low in the previous session, as the price continues to be pressured by COVID cases in China. This is causing concerns of tighter restrictions in China, which would affect energy demand. Also, the G7 proposed a price cap on Russian oil in the range of US$65-70 per barrel. However, the high cap won’t cause disruption to Russian flows and so will likely have minimal effect on markets.
    • The gold price continues to rise for the third straight day, after the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes were released, which showed that a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would likely soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.
    • Iron ore is trading over 1% higher, nearing the eight-week high of US$99.50, hit on November 18. This is due to fresh liquidity injections to steel consumers from China, of course a top consumer.
  • Goldman Sachs this morning downgraded BHP group (ASX:BHP) to a neutral rating with an improved price target of $42.90, after assessing its valuation against global peers. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is more optimistic toward Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), this morning reiterating its buy rating with an improved price target of $114.70, saying that the development of Rhodes Ridge has the potential to be significant for Rio’s Pilbara business.

Trading Central:

  • Bell Potter maintain a Buy rating on Volpara Health Technology (AX:VHT) and maintain their price target of $1.10. FY23 revenues are reduced by $2.1 million to $35.5 million, which is $1 million above guidance. H2 revenues are reliably higher than H1 and Bell Potter expect this trend will continue. At VHT’s current share price of $1.10, this implies 69.2% share price growth in a year.
  • Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Reliance Worldwide (ASX:RWC) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $3.19 to the range of $3.32 to $3.39, over 16 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

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