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Morning Bell 13 October

Sam Kanaan
October 13, 2023

US markets closed lower overnight, following the release of key inflation data with core inflation year on year declining to 4.1% in September as markets were expecting. The monthly inflation rate for September fell from a 0.6% rise in August to a 0.4% rise in September which was slightly above what markets were expecting at 0.3% which has reignited fears of further interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy-Nasdaq closed just over 0.6% lower with the Dow Jones also losing half a percent on Thursday.

US treasury yields rose off the back of released inflation data to 4.70% after hitting its highest peak in 16 years earlier this month.

In terms of US stocks, Walgreens jumped 7% following progress in its cost-cutting plans and lower levels of losses. A potential restriction in oil supply could be on the cards with the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, with geopolitical tension and instability spreading to oil producers in the US.

Over in Europe, markets closed slightly higher on Thursday as they build on positive global momentum this week. The STOXX600 ended the day up 0.1% with oil and gas stocks rising 1.3% each. Travel and leisure stocks were on the losing end, dropping 0.9% as a number of airlines have decided to suspend flights to Israel. The UK’s FTSE 100 ended the day in the green by 0.32%, whilst Germany’s DAX and the French CAC closed 0.23% and 0.37% lower respectively.

Locally yesterday, the ASX 200 closed Thursday 0.04% higher driven by rallies among the financial and real estate sectors which each jumped 0.86%. This was heavily offset by the health sector which closed 4.52% in the red yesterday due to healthcare giant CSL tumbling 6.30%.

What to watch today:

  • The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.81% at the open this morning.
  • In terms of commodities,
    • Oil is trading 0.16% lower at 83 US dollars and 35 cents a barrel after the oil market showed a rebound as Russia and Saudi Arabia showed they were working together to help support the oil market following the events in Israel and Gaza.
    • Gold is trading 0.26% lower at 1868 US dollars an ounce as high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.
    • And iron ore is up 1.32% to 115 US dollars a tonne as China are still facing financial instability issues in their construction industry.

Trading Ideas:

  • Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA), despite decreasing its price target from $3.50 to $3.35 with a current share price of $2.80. The recommendation has changed from a hold to a buy as the risk and reward profile has shifted due to the material valuation upside, should BGA execute on its 5-year targets.
  • And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Data3 Limited (ASX:DTL), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $7.29 to the range of $7.60-$7.70 over a pattern formed in 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

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