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Morning Bell 28 June

Grady Wulff
June 28, 2023

The local market returned to rally mode on Tuesday closing the session up 0.56% as a near 2% rise in real estate stocks lifted the market, while materials also added over 1.15% and financials closed up 0.66%.

As the cost-of-living pressures continue to bite, the flying kangaroo is flying higher than ever with demand for travel on Qantas remaining resilient as outlined by the airline yesterday in a May update to the market. Qantas said more than 4 million customers are expected to travel during the current school holidays on Qantas and Jetstar and overall demand remains strong as consumers continue to prioritise travel over other spending categories.

Bega Cheese shares also dipped on Tuesday after the dairy producer also released a trading update outlining that falling supply of Australian milk means it expects prices of milk to rise again in FY24, meaning Bega, as one of the largest buyers of farmgate milk in Australia, expects to report an impairment in the value of its build dairy business between $180m – $280m, with a clearer final figure expected when Bega receives the audited result for FY23 and will update the market when they have more clarity.

And for all the KFC chicken lovers out there, shares in Collins Foods, the operator of 272 KFC fast food restaurants in Australia, rocketed almost 16.5% yesterday after the company released full year results outlining revenue rose 14.2% to $1.349.5bn and an underlying net profit of $51.9m, which was down 12% YoY but beat expectations. Collins Foods warned inflation is set to remain sticky for the next 12-months due to persistent inflation in the costs of running the fried chicken outlets including wages, energy prices and input costs.

US equities returned to rally mode after 7 losing sessions for the Dow Jones, as investors assessed fresh economic data for durable goods showing a rise in May of 1.7% in a sign the economy remains resilient, slightly easing fears of a recession.  Consumer confidence in the US also rose more than expected for June, while new home sales in the region also topped expectations. The Nasdaq ended Tuesday’s session up 1.65%, the Dow Jones rose 0.63% and the S&P500 advanced 1.15%.

Over in Europe, the global rally extended into the European region as investors keep a close eye on comments from central bankers at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal. A ‘higher for longer’ message was passed by some central bank officials at the ECB conference, as inflation remains too high across the region. The STOXX600 rose 0.09% on Tuesday, Germany’s DAX added 0.21%, the French CAC added 0.43% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 0.11%.

What to watch today:

  • Ahead of the local trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open 0.37% higher on the back of the global rally overnight.
  • On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.76% lower at US$67.47/barrel as central global growth rate concerns offset upside momentum from Saudi Arabia’s production cuts coming into effect next week. Gold is trading 0.45% lower this morning at US$1914/ounce, and iron ore is down 1.75% at US$112.50/tonne.
  • AU$1.00 is buying US$0.67 , 96.33 Japanese Yen, 52.63 British Pence and NZ$1.08.
  • Australia’s monthly CPI indicator data for May is out today, with consensus expecting a decline to 6.1% for the month, down from 6.8% in April, which would indicate the RBA’s actions to hike rates is making a strong impact on cooling inflation, which has been particularly stubborn to tame especially for services and transport inflation.

Trading Ideas:

  • Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) to a Hold from a Buy, and decreased the price target on the cheese and dairy company from $4.00 to $3.50 following the company’s release of an update including a rise in farmgate milk prices, Australian milk solids appearing mispriced against export ingredient prices, impeding returns in bulk ingredients and the risk that more attractively priced offshore milk solids increasingly find their way into the domestic market, all leading to headwinds in some domestic revenue streams.
  • And Bell Potter has increased the price target on De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) from $1.83 to $1.93 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the gold miner after the company released an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for its 100%-owned Mallina Gold Project, with the resource now standing at 278 million tonnes @1.3g/t of gold for 11.7 million ounces contained, representing a 10% increase in contained ounces from the prior Mallina Gold Project Mineral Resource Estimate.

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