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Morning Bell 29 November

Grady Wulff
November 29, 2023

Wall Street resumed the November rally on Tuesday with stocks closing Tuesday’s session higher as comments from a Federal Reserve official boosted investor hopes that the central bank may not need to raise the interest rate any further. The Dow Jones rose 0.24%, the S&P500 added 0.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

US GDP Growth Rate for Q3 is out tonight and will give an indication of just how the US economy is coping during the high interest rate environment, with consensus expecting annualised growth of 5%, following a rise of 4.9% in the last reading, which provides further indication of a soft landing in the US over a recession.

In Europe, markets closed mostly lower on Tuesday following the release of key economic data in the region. The STOXX600 ended Tuesday’s session in the red, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.16%, the French CAC fell 0.21% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended Tuesday’s session down 0.07%. Consumer sentiment data was released in Germany and France overnight indicating German consumers are slowly increasing their willingness to buy in recession-hit Germany however income expectations in the region have declined, while in France, the French consumer remains sluggish on outlook as indicated by consumer confidence data.

Locally on Tuesday, the gold miners and real estate stocks boosted the ASX to a positive finish on Tuesday, with the key index ending the day up 0.4%. The energy sector weighed on the market yesterday as oil retreated for a third straight day amid delays to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting where it is expected the group of oil producing leaders will initiate further output cuts to stabilise oil prices.

For the month so far, the ASX is tracking 2.8% higher buoyed by the real estate sector as investors begin to reconsider investments in the REIT space after a heavy sell-off in this rate sensitive sector throughout the first half of 2023.

The retailers took a hit on Tuesday after Australian retail sales data for October showed a decline of 0.2% which wasn’t unexpected as Aussies saved money prior to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales periods. Economists were expecting a slight pullback in sales to a rise of 0.1% for October, however the result coming in at a 0.2% decline indicates just how hard Aussies are doing it in the high cost of living environment. We are expecting a rise in November sales though as Aussies snapped up bargains during the promotional sales weekend.

Aussie fintech company Plenti soared 71% yesterday after announcing a strategic partnership with NAB through launching a ‘NAB Powered by Plenti’ car and EV loan then expanding Plenti’s renewable energy finance to NAB customers. Under the initial deal, NAB may acquire up to 15% of Plenti’s share capital.

Healthcare company Imugene jumped 10% yesterday after revealing the FDA has granted the company fast track designation for its MAST clinical program evaluating the safety and efficacy of novel cancer-killing virus CF33-hNIS. The Fast Track process is designed to facilitate the development and the review of drugs to trat serious conditions and fill an unmet medical need, which is a big win for Imugene in the cancer treatment space.

What to watch today:

  • Ahead of the local trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are expecting the ASX to open the midweek trading session up 0.28%.
  • On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.57% higher at US$76.78/barrel, gold is up 1.36% at US$2041/ounce and iron ore is down 0.74% at US$134.50/tonne.
  • AU$1.00 is buying US$0.66, 98.16 Japanese Yen, 52.34 British Pence and NZ$1.08.

Trading Ideas:

  • Bell Potter has increased the rating on IDP Education (ASX:IEL) from a hold to a buy and increased the price target from $26.70 to $27 following the release of recent student visa data from key source markets including India, China, Vietnam, Australia, Nigeria and Thailand into key destination countries of Australia, the UK and Canada. While 1H24 is typically seasonally weaker in Australia, levels came in slightly above pre-pandemic levels and the Northern Hemisphere data was encouraging particularly for Canada which is a key market IDP operates in.
  • And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 40-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $12.14 to the range of $14.20 to $14.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

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