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Morning Bell 3 April

Grady Wulff
April 3, 2023

Wall Street extended gains into a third straight session on Friday and the US market posted a second straight quarter of gains despite turbulence during the three-month period around the unfolding of a potential global banking crisis. On Friday the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, the Dow Jones added over 400 points and the S&P500 rose 1.4%. Sentiment in the US was boosted last week by US core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, coming in below expectations at 4.6% in yet another sign inflation has peaked in the US. For the quarter the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 17.6% as investors regain appetite for growth stocks, while the Dow Jones rose 0.4% and the S&P500 added 7.4%.

Over in Europe markets closed higher again buoyed by headline inflation cooling to 6.9% in March from 8.5% in February, a preliminary report showed. Germany’s DAX added 0.7%, the French CAC added 0.81% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 0.15%. For the quarter, the STOXX600 added 7.05% despite a few weeks of banking turmoil.

The ASX ended Friday’s session up 0.78% driven by a 1.88% rise in materials stocks, while healthcare stocks added 1.09% in the last trading session of the week. For the week, the key local index rose 3.20% as global fears of a banking crisis continued to ease.

What to watch today:

  • The strength overseas for the last quarter drives the SPI futures to anticipate the ASX to open 0.63% higher to start the new trading week and month.
  • On the commodities front oil is trading 6.77% higher at US$80.87/barrel after OPEC oil producers announced a surprise cut in oil output to support market stability following the recent dive in oil prices. Saudi Arabia is cutting its output by 500,000 barrels per day while Iraq is cutting by 211,000 barrels per day, among other countries making cuts to output. Gold is trading down 0.73% at US$1965.73/ounce and iron ore is up almost 0.8% at US$127/tonne.
  • The Aussie dollar is buying US$0.67, 88.93 Japanese Yen, 54.89 British Pence and NZ$1.07.

Trading Ideas:

  • Bell Potter has downgraded its rating on The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) from a buy to a hold, and reduced the price target on the dairy company from $7.65 to $6.80 following the company’s infant formula producer, Synlait Milk (ASX:SM1), downgrading its earnings guidance and pushing out its expected GB registration in China. Bell Potter sees the balance dates between A2M and SM1 don’t align, as well as cost of goods sold being expected to rise in FY24.
  • Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) on the 25th of March, following the formation of a pattern over a period of 20-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $4.81 to the range of $4.47 to $4.55 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

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