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Wall St closed lower to start the new week as President Trump reportedly posted letters to countries indicating new tariff terms and amounts that will come into play once the July 9 waiver deadline ends. The Dow Jones fell 0.94% on Monday, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.92%.

Imports from at least 7 countries will face hefty tariffs from August 1 according to Trump’s latest posts on his social platform, Truth social.

In Europe overnight, markets mostly rose before Trump’s latest tariff updates were revealed. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX added 1.1%, the French CAC climbed 0.4%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down just 0.2%.

Across the Asia region overnight, markets closed mixed as Trump’s tariff deadline day tomorrow looms and on the back of Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs will commence from August 1. China’s CSI index fell 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.61%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.56%, and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.17%.

Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 slipped into the red to post a 0.16% loss following the record close on Friday as investors await the RBA’s rate announcement today and ahead of Trump’s tariff waiver deadline tomorrow.

Investors are increasingly on edge ahead of Trump’s tariff waiver deadline ending on Wednesday 9th July as widespread concerns revolve around trade deals not being done thus leading to hefty tariffs disrupting trade moving forward. The local market is following the trends of global markets from late last week as investor optimism fades ahead of Wednesday’s tariff deadline. Given the key index is trading around record territory of late, investors are also likely awaiting the RBA’s rate decision today before making any big moves.

Ahead of the RBA’s anticipated rate cut out today, investors also took profits from the banks as banks tend to perform worse in a lower interest rate environment.

Investors and the market are factoring in a 97% chance of a rate cut out of the RBA today to the effect of a 25-basis point cut. Should the RBA announce a cut we will likely see the tech, REIT and discretionary sectors continue to rally as such sectors tend to outperform in a lower interest rate environment.

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) tumbled 6% on Monday after the gold miner announced its production showed output at the lower end of guidance, while Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) rose over 5% on reports that UK start-up Octopus Energy, which Origin has a 23% stake in, is planning to demerge its tech division.

What to watch today:

• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.36% higher at US$68.02/barrel, gold is up 0.03% at US$3336.19/ounce and iron ore is down 1.06% at US$95.22/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.89 US cents, 94.77 Japanese yen, 47.76 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.55%.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Titomic (ASX:TTT) with a speculative buy rating and a 12-month price target of $0.50/share. Titomic is an Australian company at the forefront of industrial-scale metal additive manufacturing and Bell Potter’s analyst sees the increasing spend in defence, especially to come in the US, as a growth opportunity for Titomic.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $11.55 to the range of $12.00 to $12.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.