Weekly Wrap 20 March

The following is a transcript of an interview with Will Riggall, CIO – Bell Financial Group. You can watch the original interview here.

Sophia Mavridis: Thank you for joining us this Friday, the 20th of March. I’m Sophia Mavridis, and I’m joined today by Bell Financial Group’s Chief Investment Officer, Will Riggall. Will, thanks for being with us again.

Will Riggall: Oh, Sophia, another week goes by quickly, doesn’t it? But we’ve got a lot to cover. Let’s get into it and talk about what we saw this week.

Sophia Mavridis: Markets have been digesting the latest Fed decision and our local rate decision. Policy rates remained unchanged in the US, signalling that heightened energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are perhaps complicating the path back toward lower inflation. As we move into the third week of the Middle East conflict, markets are shifting from that initial shock toward reassessing the macro impact. Specifically, pressure on energy infrastructure across the Gulf region has pushed crude prices up. What is Bell Potter seeing in the energy sector and these latest news headlines?

Will Riggall: That’s a great wrap, Sophia. This week, the market is starting to digest the fact that this is a different type of war than we’ve seen in the past. While we looked to the initial four-to-five-week timeframe originally suggested, the market is now grappling with the complexity and the tactics involved. What has shifted is the strategy; rather than just direct confrontation, there is a clear move toward targeting energy infrastructure. This puts significant pressure on prices. We’ve seen Brent crude—the globally traded price we watch more closely than WTI—moving well above 100. Remember that during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it peaked around 120. If we inflation-adjust that number, it’s closer to 130 or 135. There is room for further upside here, and that disruption is starting to flow through to economic principles.

Sophia Mavridis: The shock remains concentrated in energy rather than global supply chains, but we are seeing a clear macro adjustment visible in rate markets. They seem to be repricing policy expectations rather than signalling outright stress. Where does Bell Potter see monetary policy heading?

Will Riggall: It is certainly becoming more complex for all central banks globally. We saw the RBA this week raise rates by 25 basis points. While broadly expected, what was a surprise was how well-balanced the decision was—roughly 4 to 5 on whether to rise or hold. In the US, expectations have shifted. At the start of the month, we expected two or more rate cuts; now, it looks like we’ll get one at best. Our recommendation to investors is to maintain discipline and keep a cool head. Geopolitical events do eventually resolve themselves, but the longer this goes on, the more it feeds through to the economy and puts markets at risk.

Sophia Mavridis: So, it’s about considering a long-term investing mindset.

Will Riggall: That’s what we encourage. If you look back through time, there is always something to worry about; markets climb that “wall of worry.” It’s interesting to look at sentiment via the AAII (Association of Institutional Investors) survey. Investors have certainly moved from bullish to bearish, but we aren’t quite at those low points seen during the Trump tariffs or COVID-19. We still need to see global investors unwind those positions to a point where they have the “dry powder” to push the market higher. When you hit that point of maximum pessimism, that is a very interesting time to start talking about what to buy.

Sophia Mavridis: A lot is happening in global news, and we’ve had some key company announcements this week. What are you looking for next?

Will Riggall: You’re right, Sophia. Amongst all this noise, two of the biggest companies in Australia announced new CEOs. BHP (ASX:BHP) announced Brandon Craig will take over from Mike Henry. Having been at BHP for 25 years and leading the US business as well as iron ore, copper, and potash, the market sees this as a transition to a “safe pair of hands.” Holders should not see this as a change from the positive momentum or the shift towards copper. On the other side, Woodside’s (ASX:WDS) Liz Westcott has been named CEO, having served as interim CEO since the end of last year. Her experience is in operational execution. Given current oil prices, Woodside has significant projects to deliver, and her operational background is a positive for shareholders.

Sophia Mavridis: Some big moves from those companies for sure. Will, thanks for joining us again this Friday, and thank you to everyone who tuned in. We’ll be back next Friday for more insights.

Will Riggall: Thanks so much, Sophia. Bye.

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives or needs. You should consider whether it is appropriate for you. You should read our Financial Services Guide and any relevant Product Disclosure Statements before making an investment. For more information visit belldirect.com.au or call 1300 786 199. Bell Direct is the trading name of Third Party Platform Pty Ltd ABN 74 121 227 905, AFSL 314341.