Weekly Wrap 22 August

Thanks for joining me this Friday the 22^nd August for our next video in our reporting season coverage this August 2025, I’m Grady Wulff, Senior Market Analyst with Bell Direct and this is also our weekly market wrap.

So far this reporting season we have seen 90 companies report with 19 beating expectations, 41 meeting expectations and 30 missing expectations. 22 companies have been upgraded by brokers while 22 have also been downgraded by brokers. Let’s dive into the big results that moved markets this week.

The strategy shift to datacentre expansion for Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) was a key driver of the company’s return to profitability in FY25 as results out this week unveiled. For FY25, GMG reported statutory net profit recovered from a loss of $98.9m in FY24 to a profit of $1.664bn in FY25, operating EPS of 118cps, up 9.8% on FY24, distribution of 30cps, net tangible assets per security rose 25% to $11.03, while gearing fell to 4.3 per cent indicating financial strength and flexibility in a capital-intensive industry. The development pipeline remains robust, particularly in data centres, which now account for 57% of work in progress. Stabilised data centre capacity increased to 700MW, with a secured pipeline of 2.7GW. Despite FY26 EPS guidance of 9% being slightly below consensus, it is viewed as conservative, with expectations of upgrades through the year, consistent with Goodman’s historical pattern. The Group’s expanding global data centre strategy and strong liquidity of $6.6bn position it well for continued growth into FY26.

Household name, Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA), also impressed investors with solid FY25 results as investors sent the price of the dairy maker’s shares up over 8% on results being released. BGA delivered a strong financial performance in FY2025, with normalised EBITDA rising 23% to $202 million, driven by growth in branded product volumes (including white milk, yoghurt, and spreads), successful new product launches, and disciplined cost management. While statutory earnings were affected by restructuring costs from major business improvement initiatives, these moves, such as the consolidation of cheese processing and the exit from juice and peanut operations, strategically position the Group for long-term efficiency and profitability. The Bulk segment returned to profit, contributing significantly with a $56.9 million turnaround in EBITDA. Additionally, Bega improved its balance sheet by reducing net debt by $36.3 million and cutting its leverage ratio to 0.8 times. With strong market positions, growing foodservice and export demand, and an ongoing focus on branded innovation, Bega declared a fully franked final dividend of 6.0 cents per share and expects further earnings growth in FY2026. The Group provides guidance of a normalised EBITDA in the range of $215m to $220m in FY2026 signalling a second solid year is on the cards for the dairy maker.

On the theme of dairy, a2 Milk met expectations in its FY25 results, prompting some brokers to upgrade it to a buy. Highlights included record sales of $1.9bn (up 13.5%), a 24.8% rise in net profit to $192.1m, and a 20.9% lift in EPS to 28¢. EBITDA margins rose to 14.4%, and the company holds over $1bn in net cash. However, FY26 guidance was cautious, with flat earnings expected as A2M sells its Mataura Valley stake and acquires the Pokeno facility, moves that may reduce revenue short term but boost margins long term. A $300m special dividend is planned, but rising capex and near-term losses from Pokeno have kept the market cautious, with the stock trading at 32.3x FY25 earnings.

Being an unhedged gold miner in FY25 shone bright for investors and resulted in stellar results for the likes of Northern Star Resources. For the last financial year, Northern Star posted record underlying free cash flow of $536 million, up 16% from FY 2024. This was driven by a 60% rise in underlying EBITDA to $3.5 billion, and a remarkable 105% jump in underlying net profit after tax to $1.4 billion. FY 2025 revenue soared 30% to $6.4 billion, supported by a 29% increase in the average gold price to $3,922 per ounce, alongside the sale of 1.63 million ounces of gold. However, costs also rose, with sales expenses climbing 11% to $4.1 billion. A final dividend of 30 cents per share, up 20% from last year, was declared, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability. Northern Star’s balance sheet remains robust with net cash of $1 billion and liquidity of $3.4 billion. The acquisition of De Grey Mining bolstered its portfolio and growth potential with many industry leaders envious of the addition of the Hemi Gold Project to Northern Star’s portfolio. Looking ahead, Northern Star expects to sell between 1.7 million and 1.85 million ounces of gold in FY 2026, with all-in sustaining costs projected between $2,300 and $2,700 per ounce. The company remains focused on its growth strategy, including advancing the Hemi project, while also managing rising production costs and the challenges of volatile gold prices.

So, what have we learned so far this reporting season?

• Earnings growth has been slowing across the board aside from gold miners and those in niche areas of the market. On the bright side though, FY26 is shaping up to be a stronger year for most sectors with strong guidance outlooks.
• Cost management is essential to ensure margin pressures are overcome in FY26.
• Retailers yet again remain resilient despite headwinds facing the sector.
• Investors exposed to datacentres are in a strong position to benefit from upside growth in FY26.
• And a return to profitability for big names has been welcomed with strong share price appreciation, but outlook still governs investor reactions.

Locally from Monday to Thursday the ASX200 posted a 1.64% gain as the major average reset its record thanks to a more than 5% surge for consumer discretionary stocks closely followed by the financials sector jumping 4.5% over the 4-trading days.

The winning stocks were led by Centuria Capital (ASX:CNI) rising 21% and Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) climbing 16% while James Hardie Industries (ASX:JHX) ended the trading week down over 36% on poor FY26 outlook.

On the broader market index, the All Ords, rose 1.48% as Weebit Nano (ASX:WBT) soared 33% while FBR (ASX:FBR) tumbled 25%.

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients over the 4-trading days this week were Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL), CSL (ASX:CSL), Regal Partners (ASX:RPL), and Woodside (ASX:WDS). Clients also bought into BHP (ASX:BHP) while taking profits from Westpac (ASX:WBC), NAB (ASX:NAB), ANZ (ASX:ANZ), Macquarie (ASX:MQG) and Wesfarmers (ASX:WES).

And the most traded ETFs were led by Betashares Australian Hybrids Active ETF (ASX:HBRD), Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF (ASX:VGS) and iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX:IVV).

On the economic calendar front next week we may see investors react to the latest meeting minutes out of the RBA to be released on Tuesday to gauge the outlook for further rate cuts in Australia, while overseas key US PCE, personal spending and GDP growth rate data will be out later in the week.

And on the reporting season calendar next week we will see results out of Adairs (ASX:ADH), Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP), Fortescue (ASX:FMG), Ramsay Healthcare (ASX:RHC), Woolworths (ASX:WOW), Qantas (ASX:QAN), Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) and Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) among others.

And that’s all for this Friday and week, have a wonderful weekend and happy investing.