Weekly Wrap 24 October

Thanks for joining me this Friday the 24th October, I’m Grady Wulff, Senior Market Analyst with Bell Direct and this is our weekly market update.

We are in the midst of quarterly earnings reports and AGM season in the US and Australia respectively so let’s dive into what results have moved markets this week and what results are suggesting about the growth prospect of earnings in FY26 so far.

In the US, we saw Tesla’s latest results show record sales but falling profits, revealing a company caught between short-term demand spikes and long-term uncertainty. Earnings missed expectations as buyers rushed to secure expiring U.S. EV tax credits, suggesting future sales may slump. The loss of federal emissions credit revenue and intensifying competition from Chinese rivals like BYD (HKG:1211) add pressure to margins. With U.S. demand softening and profits shrinking, Tesla’s outlook now hinges less on car sales and more on Elon Musk’s high stakes push into self-driving technology and robotics. Shares in the EV giant fell over 3.5% in after-hours trade on Wednesday.

Streaming giant, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), shares fell 9% after the company missed third-quarter earnings expectations, largely due to an unexpected $150 million tax charge related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian authorities. While revenue met forecasts and grew 17% year-over-year, driven by subscriber growth, pricing changes, and record ad sales, the earnings per share came in well below estimates at $5.87 versus $6.97. The surprise tax hit prompted a downward revision of Netflix’s full-year operating margin from 30% to 29%, signalling that despite strong underlying business momentum, global regulatory risks remain a material concern for investors.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) reported third-quarter net revenue of around $12.5 billion, up about 5% year-on-year, with organic revenue rising ~6% as pricing/mix helped offset flat volume. Even with some economic pressure on consumers, the company highlighted ongoing innovation and packaging strength. This suggests that Coca-Cola’s brand strength and pricing power are helping it navigate a tough environment, and its outlook implies steady but moderate growth ahead.

Locally this week we saw mixed reactions to results out of a broad range of sectors with signals of recovery in margins for retailers while cost discipline and growth point to strength for energy producers despite market volatility.

Woodside (ASX:WDS)’s Q3 update was encouraging and seems to have restored some investor confidence. The company lifted its full-year production guidance to up to 197 MMboe and lowered its cost outlook, thanks to strong performance from the Sangomar field. Revenue rose 3% quarter-on-quarter, and realised prices also edged higher, showing resilience despite broader market volatility.

Importantly, Woodside also reported strong progress on key growth projects. Scarborough is 91% complete and on track, and the Beaumont Ammonia Project is nearly finished, with commissioning underway. The positive outlook and operational momentum were well received, with the share price rising 3.2% on the day, a strong result given the broader ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) was in the red.

Homewares retailer, Adairs (ASX:ADH), released a trading update showing mixed but positive signs for investors. First-half sales guidance was trimmed to $319.5–331.5 million, but margins were lifted to 59–59.5% thanks to reduced discounting and stronger pricing discipline. Shares rose 8.3% as investors favoured margin strength over softer sales. Sustaining this profitability amid cautious consumer demand will be key to maintaining momentum in FY26. Bell Potter maintains a Hold rating with a $2.50 12-month price target.

Air New Zealand (ASX:AIZ) warned of tougher conditions, forecasting a first-half pre-tax loss of NZ$30–55 million. Weaker revenue and rising jet fuel and leasing costs are pressuring margins despite steady travel demand. Shares fell about 1% as investors trimmed earnings expectations. Management is expected to focus on cost control and capacity optimisation, though a stronger recovery will depend on stabilising input costs and improving yields in the second half.

So far from the results and AGMs we have seen this quarterly earnings period, the outlook is for resilient consumer spend in FY26, margin appreciation through disciplined cost control, and pricing power attracting investors in FY26.

Locally from Monday to Thursday the ASX200 posted a 0.39% slide as a slump in materials stocks weighed on market gains.
The winning stocks on the ASX200 this week were led by Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) rising 11.5%, Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) adding 10.4% and Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) gaining 7.5% while on the losing end, Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) and Bapcor (ASX:BAP) lost 28.86% and 19.56% respectively.

On the broader market index the All Ords (ASX:XAO) posted a 0.5% loss as a 20% rise for Weebit Nano (ASX:WBT) was more than offset by Bougainville Copper (ASX:BOC) diving almost 50%.

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients this week were ZIP (ASX:ZIP), LGI (ASX:LGI), Arafura Rare Earths (ASX:ARU), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), and Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST). Clients also bought into Woodside (ASX:WDS) while taking profits from CBA (ASX:CBA), Fortescue (ASX:FMG), BHP (ASX:BHP) and Macquarie (ASX:MQG).

And the most traded ETFs by our clients this week were led by Global X Physical Gold Structured ETF (ASX:GOLD), Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index AUD ETF (ASX:VTS) and Global X Physical Silver Structured ETF (ASX:ETPMAG).

On the economic calendar front next week, we may see investors react to the Fed’s latest interest rate decision where it is widely expected the Fed will announce a quarter-basis point rate cut. US core PCE and personal income data are also out later next week which will give an insight into the state of the US consumer’s financial affairs.

And that’s all for this Friday and week. Have a wonderful weekend and happy investing.

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives or needs. You should consider whether it is appropriate for you. You should read our Financial Services Guide and any relevant Product Disclosure Statements before making an investment. For more information visit belldirect.com.au or call 1300 786 199. Bell Direct is the trading name of Third Party Platform Pty Ltd ABN 74 121 227 905, AFSL 314341.